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A counterfactual conditional abbreviated , is a subjunctive conditional containing an if-clause which is contrary to fact. The term ''counterfactual'' was coined by Nelson Goodman in 1947,〔Goodman, N., "The Problem of Counterfactual Conditionals", ''The Journal of Philosophy'', Vol.44, No.5, (27 February 1947), pp.113-128.〕 extending Roderick Chisholm's (1946) notion of a "contrary-to-fact conditional".〔Chisholm, R.M., "The Contrary-to-Fact Conditional", ''Mind'', Vol.55, No.220, (October 1946), pp.289-307.〕 The study of counterfactual speculation has increasingly engaged the interest of scholars in a wide range of domains such as philosophy,〔Goodman, N., "The Problem of Counterfactual Conditionals", ''The Journal of Philosophy'', Vol.44, No.5, (27 February 1947), pp.113-128; Brown, R, & Watling, J., "Counterfactual Conditionals", ''Mind'', Vol.61, No.242, (April 1952), pp.222-233; Parry, W.T., "Reëxamination of the Problem of Counterfactual Conditionals", ''The Journal of Philosophy'', Vol.54, No.4, (14 February 1957), pp.85-94; Cooley, J.C., "Professor Goodman’s ''Fact, Fiction, & Forecast''", ''The Journal of Philosophy'', Vol.54, No.10, (9 May 1957), pp.293-311; Goodman, N., "Parry on Counterfactuals", ''The Journal of Philosophy'', Vol.54, No.14, (4 July 1957), pp.442-445; Goodman, N., "Reply to an Adverse Ally", ''The Journal of Philosophy'', Vol.54, No.17, (15 August 1957), pp.531-535; Lewis, D., Counterfactuals, Basil Blackwell, (Oxford), 1973, etc.〕 psychology,〔Fillenbaum, S., "Information Amplified: Memory for Counterfactual Conditionals", ''Journal of Experimental Psychology'', Vol.102, No.1, (January 1974), pp.44-49; Crawford, M.T. & McCrea, S.M., "When Mutations meet Motivations: Attitude Biases in Counterfactual Thought", ''Journal of Experimental Social Psychology'', Vol.40, No.1, (January 2004), pp.65-74, etc.〕 cognitive psychology,〔Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A., "The Simulation Heuristic", pp.201-208 in Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A. (eds), ''Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases'', Cambridge University Press, (Cambridge), 1982; Sherman, S.J. & McConnell, A.R., "Dysfunctional Implications of Counterfactual Thinking: When Alternatives to reality Fail Us", pp.199-231 in Roese, N.J. & Olson, J.M. (eds.), ''What Might Have Been: The Social Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking'', Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, (Mahwah), 1995;Nasco, S.A. & Marsh, K.L., "Gaining Control Through Counterfactual Thinking", ''Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin'', Vol.25, No.5, (May 1999), pp.556-568; McCloy, R. & Byrne, R.M.J., "Counterfactual Thinking About Controllable Events", ''Memory and Cognition'', Vol.28, No.6, (September 2000), pp.1071-1078; Byrne, R.M.J., "Mental Models and Counterfactual Thoughts About What Might Have Been", ''Trends in Cognitive Sciences'', Vol.6, No.10, (October 2002), pp.426-431; Thompson, V.A. & Byrne, R.M.J., "Reasoning Counterfactually: Making Inferences About Things That Didn't Happen", ''Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition'', Vol.28, No.6, (November 2002), pp.1154-1170, etc.〕 history,〔Greenberg, M. (ed.), ''The Way It Wasn’t: Great Science Fiction Stories of Alternate History'', Citadel Twilight, (New York), 1996; Dozois, G. & Schmidt, W. (eds.), ''Roads Not Taken: Tales of Alternative History'', The Ballantine Publishing Group, (New York), 1998; Sylvan, D. & Majeski, S., "A Methodology for the Study of Historical Counterfactuals", ''International Studies Quarterly'', Vol.42, No.1, (March 1998), pp.79-108; Ferguson, N., (ed.), ''Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals'', Basic Books, (New York), 1999; Cowley, R. (ed.), ''What If?: The World’s Foremost Military Historians Imagine What Might have Been'', Berkley Books, (New York), 2000; Cowley, R. (ed.), ''What If? 2: Eminent Historians Imagine What Might have Been'', G.P. Putnam’s Sons, (New York), 2001, etc.〕 political science,〔Fearon, J.D., "Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science", ''World Politics'', Vol.43, No.2, (January 1991), pp.169-195; Tetlock, P.E. & Belkin, A. (eds.), ''Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics'', Princeton University Press, (Princeton), 1996; Lebow, R.N., "What’s so Different about a Counterfactual?", ''World Politics'', Vol.52, No.4, (July 2000), pp.550-585; Chwieroth, J.M., "Counterfactuals and the Study of the American Presidency", ''Presidential Studies Quarterly'', Vol.32, No.2, (June 2002), pp.293-327, etc.〕 economics,〔Cowan, R. & Foray, R., "Evolutionary Economics and the Counterfactual Threat: On the Nature and Role of Counterfactual History as an Empirical Tool in Economics", ''Journal of Evolutionary Economics'', Vol.12, No.5, (December 2002), pp.539-562, etc.〕 social psychology,〔Roese, N.J. & Olson, J.M. (eds.), ''What Might Have Been: The Social Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking'', Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, (Mahwah), 1995; Sanna, L.J., "Defensive Pessimism, Optimism, and Simulating Alternatives: Some Ups and Downs of Prefactual and Counterfactual Thinking", ''Journal of Personality and Social Psychology'', Vol.71, No.5, (November 1996), pp1020-1036; Roese, N.J., "Counterfactual Thinking", ''Psychological Bulletin'', Vol.121, No.1, (January 1997), pp.133-148; Sanna, L.J., "Defensive Pessimism and Optimism: The Bitter-Sweet Influence of Mood on Performance and Prefactual and Counterfactual Thinking", ''Cognition and Emotion'', Vol.12, No.5, (September 1998), pp.635-665; Sanna, L.J. & Turley-Ames, K.J., "Counterfactual Intensity", ''European Journal of Social Psychology'', Vol.30, No.2, (March/April 2000), pp.273-296; Sanna, L.J., Parks, C.D., Meier, S., Chang, E.C., Kassin, B.R., Lechter, J.L., Turley-Ames, K.J. & Miyake, T.M., "A Game of Inches: Spontaneous Use of Counterfactuals by Broadcasters During Major League Baseball Playoffs", ''Journal of Applied Social Psychology'', Vol.33, No.3, (March 2003), pp.455-475, etc.〕 law,〔Strassfeld, R.N., "If...: Counterfactuals in the Law", ''George Washington Law Review'', Volume 60, No.2, (January 1992), pp.339-416; Spellman, B.A. & Kincannon, A., "The Relation between Counterfactual (“but for”) and Causal reasoning: Experimental Findings and Implications for Juror’s Decisions", ''Law and Contemporary Problems'', Vol.64, No.4, (Autumn 2001), pp.241-264; Prentice, R.A. & Koehler, J.J., "A Normality Bias in Legal Decision Making", ''Cornell Law Review'', Vol.88, No.3, (March 2003), pp.583-650, etc.〕 organizational theory,〔Creyer, E.H. & Gürhan, Z., "Who's to Blame? Counterfactual Reasoning and the Assignment of Blame", ''Psychology and Marketing'', Vol.14, No.3, (May 1997), pp.209-307; Zeelenberg, M., van Dijk, W.W., van der Plight, J., Manstead, A.S.R., van Empelen, P., & Reinderman, D., "Emotional Reactions to the Outcomes of Decisions: The Role of Counterfactual Thought in the Experience of Regret and Disappointment", ''Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes'', Vol.75, No.2, (August 1998), pp.117-141; Naquin, C.E. & Tynan, R.O., "The Team Halo Effect: Why Teams Are Not Blamed for Their Failures", ''Journal of Applied Psychology'', Vol.88, No.2, (April 2003), pp.332-340; Naquin, C.E., "The Agony of Opportunity in Negotiation: Number of Negotiable Issues, Counterfactual Thinking, and Feelings of Satisfaction", ''Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes'', Vol.91, No.1, (May 2003), pp.97-107, etc.〕 marketing,〔Hetts, J.J., Boninger, D.S., Armor, D.A., Gleicher, F. & Nathanson, A., "The Influence of Anticipated Counterfactual Regret on Behavior", ''Psychology & Marketing'', Vol.17, No.4, (April 2000), pp.345-368; Landman, J. & Petty, R., "“It Could Have Been You”: How States Exploit Counterfactual Thought to Market Lotteries", ''Psychology & Marketing'', Vol.17, No.4, (April 2000), pp.299-321; McGill, A.L., "Counterfactual Reasoning in Causal Judgements: Implications for Marketing", ''Psychology & Marketing'', Vol.17, No.4, (April 2000), pp.323-343; Roese, N.J., "Counterfactual Thinking and Marketing: Introduction to the Special Issue", ''Psychology & Marketing', Vol.17, No.4, (April 2000), pp.277-280; Walchli, S.B. & Landman, J., "Effects of Counterfactual Thought on Postpurchase Consumer Affect", ''Psychology & Marketing'', Vol.20, No.1, (January 2003), pp.23-46, etc.〕 and epidemiology.〔Randerson, J., "Fast action would have saved millions", ''New Scientist'', Vol.176, No.2372, (7 December 2002), p.19; Haydon, D.T., Chase-Topping, M., Shaw, D.J., Matthews, L., Friar, J.K., Wilesmith, J. & Woolhouse, M.E.J., "The Construction and Analysis of Epidemic Trees With Reference to the 2001 UK Foot-and-Mouth Outbreak", ''Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences'', Vol.270, No.1511, (22 January 2003), pp.121-127, etc.〕 In 1748, when defining causation, David Hume referred to a counterfactual case: == Examples == The difference between indicative and counterfactual conditionals, in a context of past time reference, is one of emphasis, and can be illustrated with a pair of examples in which the ''if'' clause is in the past indicative in the first example but in the pluperfect subjunctive in the second: *''If Oswald did not shoot Kennedy, then someone else did.'' *''If Oswald had not shot Kennedy, then someone else would have.'' The protasis (the ''if'' clause) of the first sentence may or may not be true according to the speaker, so the apodosis (the ''then'' clause) also may or may not be true; the apodosis is asserted by the speaker to be true if the protasis is true. In this sentence the ''if'' clause and the ''then'' clause are both in the past tense of the indicative mood. In the second sentence, the speaker is speaking with a certainty that Oswald ''did'' shoot Kennedy (according to the speaker, the protasis is false), and therefore the main clause deals with the counterfactual result — what would have happened. In this sentence the ''if'' clause is in the pluperfect subjunctive form of the subjunctive mood, and the ''then'' clause is in the conditional perfect form of the conditional mood. A corresponding pair of examples with present time reference uses the present indicative in the ''if'' clause of the first sentence but the past subjunctive in the second sentence's ''if'' clause: *''If it is raining, then he is inside. '' *''If it were raining, then he would be inside.'' Here again, in the first sentence the ''if'' clause may or may not be true; the ''then'' clause may or may not be true but certainly (according to the speaker) is true conditional on the ''if'' clause being true. Here both the ''if'' clause and the ''then'' clause are in the present indicative. In the second sentence, the ''if'' clause is not true, while the ''then'' clause may or may not be true but certainly would be true in the counterfactual circumstance of the ''if'' clause being true. In this sentence the ''if'' clause is in the past subjunctive form of the subjunctive mood, and the ''then'' clause is in the conditional mood. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Counterfactual conditional」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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